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panarithmos / mlb · 2026-05-02

Today's home-run picks, scored by gematria + power + milestone factors.

A daily shortlist of hitters likely to homer, ranked by composite score and shown with the single strongest contributing factor for each pick. Lineup confirmation status appears alongside.

Slate ready Some lineups provisional
§1 · Today's HR picks

Top 10, sorted by composite score.

Higher scores reflect a stronger composite case for the player to homer today. Availability column reflects lineup confirmation status at slate-publish time.

■ HR PICKS 10 entries · score desc · drops removed
  1. 01 Shohei Ohtani 8.97 Milestone Matches Jersey teamLAD in luMaybe gate—
  2. 02 Pete Alonso 8.90 Milestone Matches Jersey teamBAL in luYes gate—
  3. 03 Aaron Judge 8.57 Career Home Run Rate teamNYY in luYes gate—
  4. 04 Max Muncy 8.48 Milestone Matches Jersey teamLAD in luMaybe gate—
  5. 05 Juan Soto 8.18 Milestone Matches Jersey teamNYM in luMaybe gate—
  6. 06 Rhys Hoskins 8.11 Milestone Matches Jersey teamCLE in luMaybe gate—
  7. 07 Christian Walker 7.90 Milestone Matches Jersey teamHOU in luYes gate—
  8. 08 Salvador Perez 7.88 Milestone Matches Jersey teamKC in luMaybe gate—
  9. 09 Joc Pederson 7.84 Milestone Matches Jersey teamTEX in luMaybe gate—
  10. 10 Corey Seager 7.77 Milestone Matches Jersey teamTEX in luMaybe gate—
■ TAKEAWAY how to read this list

Picks are ranked top-down by composite score. The factor shown next to each pick is the single strongest contributor for that hitter today; full breakdowns appear in the Decode view (coming).

Treat the list as a research shortlist, not a betting recommendation. Always cross-check confirmed lineups before acting.

§2 · Alternate ranking observation only

A second ranking, shown for comparison.

A parallel scoring view that draws on different evidence than the primary list. Use it to spot agreements and disagreements; it does not feed the primary picks.

■ ALT RANKING 10 entries
  1. 01 Vinnie Pasquantino 1.231 Pitcher Recent Hr Allowed High teamKC in luMaybe gate—
  2. 02 Shohei Ohtani 1.042 Career Home Run Rate teamLAD in luMaybe gate—
  3. 03 Teoscar Hernández 1.000 Career Home Run Rate teamLAD in luMaybe gate—
  4. 04 Pete Alonso 0.966 Pitcher Recent Hr Allowed High teamBAL in luYes gate—
  5. 05 Bobby Witt Jr. 0.965 Pitcher Recent Hr Allowed High teamKC in luMaybe gate—
  6. 06 Nathan Church 0.923 Pitcher Recent Hr Allowed High teamSTL in luMaybe gate—
  7. 07 Kyle Schwarber 0.910 Career Home Run Rate teamPHI in luYes gate—
  8. 08 Rhys Hoskins 0.907 Career Home Run Rate teamCLE in luMaybe gate—
  9. 09 Gary Sánchez 0.902 Career Home Run Rate teamMIL in luMaybe gate—
  10. 10 Manny Machado 0.879 Career Home Run Rate teamSD in luMaybe gate—
§3 · Decode

Per-pick breakdown.

Coming soon.

§4 · Calibration

How well the picks have done.

Coming soon.

§5 · Perm builder

Multi-pick combinations with stake calc.

Coming soon.